The Chaos Playbook to Navigate Times of Uncertainty
- Matt Symes
- Feb 25
- 4 min read
Updated: Jul 9
In times of crisis, it’s easy to feel overwhelmed.
The sheer volume of problems can lead to paralysis—leaders either freeze, or overanalyze things we can’t control.
We’ve been giving an extra 30 days to prepare, and this is no time to waste a crisis. That’s where we need to start.
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The Mindset
Before making decisions, ground yourself in what you can control.
Using the framework from the 7 Habits of Highly Effective People by Steven Covey, we can break the level of control we have on everything going on around us into 3 circles:
Circle of Concern: Stay Informed, find your trusted voices and sources. Here are some of mine.
Circle of Influence: Identify your key relationships and manage them more tightly. You have more influence than you think
Circle of Control: What do you have control over directly? How have you translated the knowledge from the circle of concern and knowledge/decisions from your circle of influence into action within your circle of control.
In times of crisis, Reactive People stay fixated on the Circle of Concern, by staying glued to unfolding drama they stay stuck in their own mental loops.
On the other hand, Proactive People unpack the challenge at hand into these three circles and get to work. In order to keep you and your team afloat it is important to shift your mindset from reacting to proactively preparing.
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The Playbook
Once you get in the right mindset, you need to start taking action with focus. You need a playbook where you can quickly integrate what you learn into your next course of action.
The Playbook we’re sharing below should be used as a learning Loop:
Step 1: Forecast – Customers, Cash, Constraints
A crisis is unpredictable, but preparing for the unknown isn’t. A forecast is a series of best guesses. In times like these leaders must update their forecasts WEEKLY based on evolving conditions.
We recommend focusing your forecast on:
Your greatest asset, your customers. Gaining an in-depth understanding of risks from their perspective, as well as the value you bring.
Your cash flow, since having an in-depth understanding of your cash needs and expenses will be instrumental to your survival, clarifying what is a need and what can be cut.
Understand where things can go wrong by forecasting process constraints that point out points of failure in your key processes
Actionable Insight - Conduct a Full Existing & Past Customer Review:
Go through anyone you’ve done business with in the last three years.
What are your current sales touch points and how can you adapt them to the current situation? What is the impact of this crisis on them? What does this mean for you?
Once you’ve conducted a line by line customer analysis you can establish a communication / sales plan by customer. Remember top integrate this into your future messaging as you navigate this situation.
Need help identifying your best customers? Download our FREE Customer Behaviour Matrix.
Step 2: Plan – Cut, Control, Continuously Improve
Your plan isn’t about predicting the future—it’s about preparing to act with agility.
Cut: Identify unnecessary expenses. What can you remove today to create flexibility tomorrow?
Control: Strengthen what’s essential—inventory, IT, and critical processes. Every dollar and resource should have a purpose.
Continuously Improve: Innovation thrives in crisis. Use this time to optimize operations, marketing, and training to emerge stronger. We recently dove into where your best investments might be in our latest podcast episode.
Actionable Insight- Understand Procurement Risks:
Conduct a thorough review of your supply chain and procurement processes. Can you pinpoint exactly where your costs are increasing? How does this affect your risks? Are there any bottlenecks or Single Points of Failure you can identify and quickly stay ahead of?
Step 3: Execute – Cadence, Communication, Colleagues
A crisis strategy is only as strong as its execution. Leaders must create structure and momentum.
Wartime CEO mode: Accelerate your cadence for decision making to optimize adaptability and when in doubt overcommunicate. What was quarterly becomes monthly, monthly becomes weekly, weekly becomes daily, and daily becomes at least 2x per day.
Overcommunication: In times of crisis it is not only leaders who can get stuck in the weeds, now more than ever your team needs to stay informed. Clear, confident messaging builds trust.
Colleagues: Do you have an in-depth understanding of your team, their skills and how much flexibility those skills have? The better you understand your team and their flexibility the easier it will be for you to pivot when necessary.
Actionable Insight- Increase Volume Where it Matters:
Increasing meeting cadence generally is not the move here. You need to focus on areas that truly matter, like sales to drive increased volume, supply chain to control costs & mitigate risk, and AR/AP to protect cash.
As Buyer Paralysis creep in you can expect sales cycles to get longer, with decisions going your way less often. The only way to counteract this is to ramp up focused volume on your sales efforts.
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AI as an Amplifier
In times of crisis, leaders don’t just need to work harder—they need to work smarter.
AI can be an amplifier, helping leaders brainstorm faster faster, understand scenarios from different perspectives and optimize resources.
Scenario Analysis: Use conversational prompts to get AI to take on different personas and then ask them questions
Conversational Brainstorming: Rather than getting stuck running ideas on your own head, once you’ve arrived at a conclusion spend some time brainstorming with an AI assistant.
Streamline Communications: Use it to properly reframe internal and external messaging, accelerating the rate at which you share ideas. In situations like these, clarity is critical, there is no overcommunication.
Leaders who integrate AI into their crisis strategy gain a competitive edge by staying agile, reducing uncertainty, and focusing on strategic execution.
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The Bottom Line
Navigating crisis isn’t about waiting for stability—it’s about building it. Leaders who move decisively, adapt strategically, and execute with discipline don’t just survive; they thrive.
Looking for additional support? Don’t hesitate to reach out, let's chat.
